Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

From:
http://madconomist.com/is-this-how-a...years-from-now


There has been a lot of lively debate about the merits of suburb, country, city - much of it, I think, far too polarized. For example the powerful impact of James Kunstler and the (otherwise excellent) film _The End of Suburbia_ have effectively led a lot of people to simply dismiss the suburbs. And yet many suburbs have approximately the same population density as 19th century large towns that supported considerable infrastructure. Now in many cases, because of the ridiculous zoning laws, there is no such infrastructure, but large suburban houses and garages are appropriately sized to create it - interstitial businesses will spring up rapidly as people can no longer afford to shop, and zoning laws will be overthrown. Let me be clear, I agree entirely with Kunstler that suburbia was a tremendous misallocation of resources - I think the project of the suburbs was deeply flawed. Where I disagree is in the idea that we should now abandon them - that we must. In fact, I think we must not, simply because industrial agriculture is increasingly disconnected from producing real food for real people. As more and more Americans get poorer and are priced out of food by rising energy prices, we will absolutely require suburbia to keep fed - that arable land, much of it superb farmland - has to be brought back into production. And since we won�t be commuting from the cities, we�ll be living the houses. Yes, it would absolutely have been better to build better houses and design better- but that doesn�t make suburbia uninhabitable.
The same thing is true with cities - cities of 1 million or so have existed for a very, very long time. I have my doubts about whether cities of 8-10 million will be sustainable in a world with high transport costs, but I also have no doubt that most cities, which were established for reasons - because they sit in a useful or valuable place - will continue to be cities, even if their infrastructure changes and their population reduces in the longer term. Manhattan and Chicage and LA all do have a future - but it is important to be able to live within the kind of future they do have, and within the limitations of urban centers.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

I agree, but a large swath of them will be burned by their owners before we get there.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Yes but what will the banks/government do with all those unoccupied homes?

Eventually they will revert to local governments and squatters, or the suburbanites who do own their homes and remain will be able to use them since no one else is.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Here is an early look at what happens. A later look would find wanderers camping in abandoned courthouses and other public buildings.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

I just don't see how all of "suburbia" would be ABLE to move to the cities?
Where would they live? There aren't that many flipping vacancies. The cities have their limits to population as well, as in they are already overflowing with people, how many more do you think society can jam in? All of suburbia? I don't think so, there are always going to be outlying areas where people need to live.
In a lot of areas, the old suburbia do not even exist anymore, they've turned into their own little "cities" outside the big cities.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

That's a relief :sarc:

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

The unproductive will be culled from city populations ...........taxed and regulated right out of exsitence...... useless eaters will not be tolerated.


T

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Hummm,

To me this article is Panglossian wish upon a star politics. Where will the energy come to rebuild these suburbs into argricutural paradises? Had we the forethought and forecasting abilities this could been plan, but cheap oil precluded that crucial piece of reorganization. How many sheeps do you know want to reorient their lives to agriculture? I'm listening. Most are simply too fat, too complacent, and too damn lazy. There are still people who think gas prices will fall upon Obama's election. people are asleep. And suppose big agro will do it? The same question applies - Where will the energy come from to plant water, harvest and transport this food? Basically we're fu*ked. Suburbians will hold on to this false reality of the American dream for as long as possible. that will translate into them moving back to the cities close to work so they can continue this misallocated experiment. Minorities will be pushed to the margins of Suburbia and left for dead at worst.It will not be until we fundamentally understand as a country that there is little oil left and little options left other than to reorganize our lives around local communities and food production people will go back to suburbs to rebuild an agarian society at a great cost and with little oil. at that point minorities will be pushed back to the decaying cities. There is nothing new under the sun. The energy will be blood, sweat, and tears.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Cultures all collapse in the same general way, but details can vary a lot. One common symptom is secession. Neighborhoods are blockaded and turned into walled compounds. We presently call them "gated communities". Another possibility is that residents vote with their feet and go looking for a better life somewhere else. Cities often remain occupied, but only by scavengers squatting in abandoned buildings, especially in the more durable public buildings. People in suburbs or entirely outside of towns will need to fortify their neighborhoods (implying that farmers will have to move into neighborhoods) to protect themselves against wandering bandits. If government still exists, the agents will likely be indistinguishable from the wandering bandits. Personal freedom will be immense, but only because a person will not be able to do much. Cooperation outside of families or guilds will be non-existent. Life will be hard, and people will do whatever they think they need to in order to support their families. Eventually some of these communities will be joined under a charismatic leader to deal with some sort of problem, and eventually a hierarchy of leaders will take power, and the whole cycle will begin again. Thus it has always been. Always.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

In much of America enough water can be collected from your roof to water you and your garden. Hand labor yard sized gardens require no oil. Composting toilets can make even your own home's sewage into safe fruit tree fertilizer. You can get it hot enough to be sanitized with concentrated sunlight, or just never put it on the garden. It won't contaminate the fruit trees.

Now desert cities are likely doomed. Here it is semi arid and our roof would support our water needs if we did not use a flush toilet or take long showers.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

Yep, I agree. Gated communities exist to protect the residents against the failures of urban living and insufficient laws that have not changed with the changing social demands. That is akin to circling the wagons. You will note that those inside the circle are always saved by help arriving from the outside. In our world, there is no "outside."

I have a few cows and goats and miscellaneous other critters and there is nothing much at all i can do to protect them from raiders. I can't be everywhere at once and i can't stay awake all the time, and i have no chance of long term survival on my own.

Too much machismo and too many guns among our compatriots give the impression that all we have to do is shoot it out until the bad guys are gone. They have seen too many movies and not spent time trying to maintain a small homestead.

I can not survive without help from others who share the same goals and concerns. I would desperately love to do it on my own but i'll need help from neighbors and they will need help from me. Banding together in small groups is an inevitability if we are to make it through really bad times. When it gets to the place that losing a neighbor is losing another guard and gun, it changes your outlook. Preparing for a SHTF situation has got to include your trusted neighbors, wherever you live. There are going to be an awful lot of hungry, scared, desperate people waiting for you to take a nap.

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

What's that joke? What will Chinese families be calling Americans in the years to come? ~ "Waiter!"

Re: Is This How Americans Will Live A Few Years From Now?
 

I don't think we could do it ourselves either, if we are still working...wouldn't have 24/7 coverage. I totally plan to hit the town hall meetings and try to get everyone in our small town to organize somehow, someway to protect everyone and the surrounding farms if it every really got this bad. And hopefully everyone could pitch in something to help everyone else out.

Too much food on the hoof and in the fields out here, and right off the roads...we have some nice black angus right down at the corner, I wonder how long they'd LAST.

We'd have ole fashioned cattle/horse rustling come back; however, if you were a light sleeper you'd probably hear them being loaded unless they parked further on down the road, which is risky as a passing car would see them moving the livestock.

I think gardens and small critters would get hit up hard (as well as city/surburban dwellings). Your bigger livestock can still be rustled, but it's a little harder to do without getting caught, at least out here, the farms are closer together and the county sheriff's do travese the back roads at night.

I'm sure out west with the big ranges, it would be easier, but you'd know darn well it'd be a professional hit job or local, bands of hungry city people are probably not going to take it to the vast ranges out West, they wouldn't survive long without getting caught or ending up dead, I'd say the same for the hill people, they will protect their livestock and gardens if they are out in the boonies; again, if you are far enough out, not many people are going to make it to your place.

But if you're like us and surrounded by smaller towns, and within a reasonable commuting distance, it's a probability they may not stop at your gardens, small livestock, if you're not home, figure they are going to break in and look for valuables, heck, your LOCALS will do it if they are desperate, all the more reason to keep tabs on everyone and group together.

It would be difficult for one person to protect themselves without some fancy equipment and traps and well heavy duty devices, and not without high risk.